WMO expects 2026 to rank among the four hottest years on record
The climate agency put January through September about 1.47°C above preindustrial levels as it briefed COP31 delegates.
The World Meteorological Organization expects 2026 to finish among the four warmest years in its records. Its provisional update, released November 9 at COP31 in Antalya, Türkiye, puts the global average surface temperature for the first nine months at about 1.47°C above the preindustrial average.
The report follows a run of 12 exceptionally warm years. It says global sea level is at a record high and ocean heat is on course for a tenth consecutive annual record. Sea surface temperatures also reached monthly records during 2026.
A strengthening El Niño could raise the full-year temperature further, the agency said. The pattern changes how heat is distributed between the tropical Pacific and the atmosphere. WMO cautioned that the data used in the update mostly end in September and miss some of the latest effects of the event.
The 1.47°C figure describes a nine-month period. The Paris Agreement’s temperature goal concerns warming over a longer period. WMO plans to publish its final assessment for 2026 in March 2027.